SURPRISING WHAT HAPPENS WHEN YOU
RUN THE NUMBERS
The following report was carefully prepared in an effort to understand the claims of the global warming warnings. In particular the "Man Made Type".
Be advised that no claim is made that the calculations are exact or that the measurements and facts are exact to the last decimal. Every effort has been made to gather the data in the most precise methods. But as the reader will understand, even if some numbers are off even by large amounts, which they are not, this report and it's results do a great deal to dispel the alarmist fervor.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
This first group of data was gathered and produced in an effort to see just how much northern ice there is, what effect it would have if every bit of it melted and how much time, all this could take.
The findings should ease some stress on property owners near the coast.
SEA LEVEL CALCULATION
(WITH ALL NORTHERN ICE MELTED)
SQUARE MILES OF ALL LAND
-
Greenland -
(500 m x 250 m) = 125,000 SqM
Total = 635,000 SqM
Greenland has an average ice sheet thickness = 5,000 feet = [ .960 mile] x 630,000 = 604,800 Cubic Miles (CuM)
-
Iceland -
Total = 45,000 SqM
Iceland has an average ice sheet thickness = 1,300 feet = [ .2462] x 45,000 = 11,079 CuM
-
Northern Canada -
(2000m x 300m) = 600,000 SqM
Total = 1,100,000 SqM
Northern Canada has an average ice sheet thickness = 250 feet = [ .047948 miles] x 1,100,000 = 52,743 CuM
-
Svalbard (Norway) -
Total 10,000 SqM 7350
Svalbard has an average ice sheet thickness = 250 feet [ .047948 miles] x 10,000 = 480 CuM
-
Matochen Shar Peninsula (Russia) -
Total 7,500 SqM
Matochen Shar Peninsula has an average ice sheet thickness = 200 feet [ .037878 miles] x 7,500 = 284 CuM
-
Russian Islands +/-
Total 60,000 SqM
Russian Islands has an average ice sheet thickness = 300 feet [.056818 miles] x 60,000 = 3,409 CuM
-
Alaska (586,412) SqM
Total 586,412 SqM
*Alaska has an average ice sheet thickness = 100 feet [.018939 miles] x 586,412 = 11,106 CuM
* Since a large portion of Alsaka's ice and snow, below a certain elevation, already melts during the sumer, the 11,106 CuM may be more than is actually there, on average, during the year.
-
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Grand Total Square miles of Northern Ice = 2,443,912 SqM
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Grand Total Cubic Miles of Northern Ice = 688,301 CuM
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
############################################################################
This group of calculations was done to see what coverage, in square miles, a layer of all the northern hemisphere's ice would bring if it were shaped into a 1" thick sheet. It was then applied to the total square miles of all connected oceans, seas, bays and waterways of the entire globe. Since water seeks it's own level, except for periods of tides, the ocean levels around the world are consistent.
CALCULATION VALUES
1 cubic mile = 147,197, 952,000 cubic foot <147B>
1 cubic foot = 1,728 cubic inches
1 cubic foot of ice creates a 1 inch layer equal to 1,728 square inches
1 cubic mile creates 85,184,000 sets of 1,728 square inches
or
1 linear mile = 63,360 inches
1 cubic mile has 63,360 layers (1 mile x 1 mile x 1")
1cubic mile of ice would cover 63,360 SqM 1" thick
>-
1 cubic mile of ice creates a layer of 147,197, 952,000 square inches 1 inch thick
>-
1 square mile = 4,014,489,600 square inches
>-
This represents all the worlds ice in square miles one inch thick.
688,301 CuM (cubic miles) x 63,360 SqM (square miles) = 43,610,751,360 SqM of ice 1 inch thick
*This represents all the globe's connected waterways.
There is some dispute among the world's geologists as too the exact square miles of waterway. Some calculations indicate less, others more. But the small differences would not make the results of this data change, but in a small way.
150,826,300 Square Miles of connected water (sea level)
If every bit of known ice is melted in the northern hemisphere.
43,610,751,360 SqM of ice 1 inch thick (divided by) 150,826,300 SqM water = 290 inches
290 inches (divided by) 12 = 24 feet x .80 = 19.2 feet
If every bit of ice were melted from just Greenland
Greenland 604,800 x 63360= 38,320,128,000 255inchs / 12 = 21 x .80 = 16.80 feet
The two sets of numbers shown above, while not nearly as large or devastating as the global warming alarmist's predict, they are significant and only fall into the true realm of reality when the time calculations and temperature rises are computed, as I have done below.
Ice, since it is composed of crystals and air has more volume than water. Depending on how compressed or compacted it might be in any particular location. If a container, which is completely filled with ice (100 %), would be filled to approxamately 80%, after melting. Ice to Water volume percent 80%
Note: Since most of the North Pole (The Arctic) is comprised of water, if all of the water based ice were to melt, there would be a net loss in sea levels.
-
The following are square mile calculations for all the globe's connected waterways. These totals were used in the square mile and cubic mile calulations shown above.
OCEANS
Pacific Ocean 69,375,000 square miles
Atlantic Ocean 41,105,000 square miles
Indian Ocean 28,900,000 square miles
Arctic Ocean 5,246,000 square miles
Southern Ocean 13,700,000 square miles
SEAS, GULFS, BAYS, ETC.
weddell sea 1,080,000 square miles
Caribbean sea 1,063,000 square miles
Mediterranean sea 970,000 square miles
gulf of Mexico 600,000 square miles
Persian gulf 92,500 square miles
red sea 174,000 square miles
Arabian sea 1,491,000 square miles
bay of Bengal 839,000 square miles
black sea 168500 square miles
Caspian sea 149,200 square miles
Hudson bay 316,000 square miles
Baffin bay 266,000 square miles
Kara Sea 340,000 square miles
Sea of Japan 377,600 square miles
South China Sea 1,300,000 square miles
Total of all seas, gulfs and bays 9,226,300 sq miles
Total sq miles of world's oceans 141,600,000 square miles
Total of all seas, gulfs and bays 9,226,300 sq miles
Total of 150,826,300 Square Miles of connected water level
-
GASES AND COMPOUNDS IN OUR ATMOSPHERE
This next section lists the major greenhouse gases found in our atmosphere, along with technical information and references. The important data to note in each of these compounds are the percentages of the atmosphere that they comprise. When considering the effect of these gases, one must know the amounts of each and the total of all, to determine if those amounts can actually form a greenhouse "sheet of glass" and warm the planet.
Just as everyone knows that if you insulate your attic space with several layers of insulation, the R rating increases and the insulation value will increase. Likewise, you can say you have insulated your attic if you put 1/32 of an inch of insulation up there. But how effective it would be is another matter.
With the man made greenhouse gases, including Co2, dispersing through our atmosphere in such small quantities, relative to percentages of the atmosphere, the greenhouse effect is so insignificant, global warming resulting from it is unmeasureable.
CARBON MONOXIDE
Carbon monoxide is a colorless, odorless, tasteless gas. It is also flammable and
is quite toxic to humans and other oxygen-
Carbon monoxide is present in Earth's atmosphere at very low concentrations. A typical concentration of CO in Earth's troposphere is around 100 ppb (parts per billion; meaning one hundred out of every billion air molecules is carbon monoxide), although especially clean air can have concentrations as low as 50 ppb. Carbon monoxide has a typical "lifespan" of several months in Earth's atmosphere. The gas eventually reacts with oxygen (O2) to form carbon dioxide (CO2).
Carbon Monoxide in the air by percent = .0000001 %
CARBON DIOXIDE
Carbon dioxide is a chemical compound </wiki/Chemical_compound> composed of two oxygen </wiki/Oxygen> atoms </wiki/Atom> covalently bonded </wiki/Covalent_bond> to a single carbon </wiki/Carbon> atom. It is a gas </wiki/Gas> at standard temperature and pressure </wiki/Standard_temperature_and_pressure> and exists in Earth's atmosphere </wiki/Earth%27s_atmosphere> in this state. It is currently at a globally averaged concentration of approximately 375 ppm </wiki/Parts_per_million> by volume </wiki/Volume> in the Earth's atmosphere,[1] although this varies both by location and time. Carbon dioxide's chemical formula </wiki/Chemical_formula> is CO2.
In general, it is exhaled by animals and utilized by plants during photosynthesis </wiki/Photosynthesis>. Additional carbon dioxide is created by the combustion of fossil fuels </wiki/Fossil_fuels> or vegetable matter, among other chemical processes.
Carbon dioxide is an important greenhouse gas </wiki/Greenhouse_gas> because it absorbs in the infrared </wiki/Infrared>, and because of its atmospheric lifetime. Due to this, and the role it plays in the respiration </wiki/Respiration_%28physiology%29> of plants, it is a major component of the carbon cycle </wiki/Carbon_cycle>.
Carbon Dioxide in the air by percent = .00457 %
METHANE
Methane is a relatively potent greenhouse gas </wiki/Greenhouse_gas> with a high global warming potential </wiki/Global_warming_potential> (i.e., warming effect compared to carbon dioxide </wiki/Carbon_dioxide>).[1] The Third assessment report </wiki/Third_assessment_report> of the IPCC </wiki/IPCC> stated that when averaged over 100 years each kg of CH4 warms the Earth 25 times as much as the same mass of CO2. The Fourth assessment report </wiki/Fourth_assessment_report> has updated this number to include indirect effects and states that the relative impact of CH4 to CO2 averaged over 20 years is 72.[2]. The reason for this discrepancy is that methane in the atmosphere is eventually oxidized, producing carbon dioxide and water. As a result, methane in the atmosphere has a half life </wiki/Half_life> of seven years (every seven years, the amount of methane halves).
Methane is a chemical compound </wiki/Chemical_compound> with the molecular formula CH4. It is the simplest alkane </wiki/Alkane>, and the principal component of natural gas </wiki/Natural_gas>. Methane's bond angles are 109.5 degrees. Burning </wiki/Combustion> one molecule </wiki/Molecule> of methane in the presence of oxygen </wiki/Oxygen> releases one molecule of CO2 (carbon dioxide </wiki/Carbon_dioxide>) and two molecules of H2O </wiki/Water>:
CH4(Methane) is present at about .9 ppm in modern atmosphere.
Methane in the air by percent = .0000009 %
OZONE
Ozone (O3) is a triatomic </wiki/Triatomic> molecule </wiki/Molecule>, consisting
of three oxygen </wiki/Oxygen> atoms </wiki/Atom>. It is an allotrope </wiki/Allotrope>
of oxygen </wiki/Oxygen> that is much less stable than the diatomic </wiki/Diatomic>
O2. Ground-
The highest levels of ozone in the atmosphere are in the stratosphere </wiki/Stratosphere>, in a region also known as the ozone layer </wiki/Ozone_layer> between about 10 km and 50 km above the surface (or between 6.21 and 31.1 miles). Here it filters out the shorter wavelengths (less than 320 nm) of ultraviolet </wiki/Ultraviolet> light, also called UV rays, (270 to 400 nm) from the Sun </wiki/Sun> that would be harmful to most forms of life </wiki/Life> in large doses. These same wavelengths are also among those responsible for the production of vitamin D </wiki/Vitamin_D>, which is essential for human health </wiki/Health>. Ozone in the stratosphere is mostly produced from ultraviolet rays reacting with oxygen:
O2 + (radiation < 240 nm) → 2 O
O + O2 → O3
It is destroyed by the reaction with atomic oxygen </wiki/Atomic_oxygen>:
chlorofluorocarbon molecule
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GLOBAL WARMING AND SEA LEVEL WARNINGS
Run the Numbers /Apply the Facts
1) We are told that all of Greenland's ice will melt and flood coastal cities all over the world. Global warming alarmists (GWA's) have informed the world that 12 cubic miles of Greenland's ice is melting away every year and that the sea level will rise 24 feet.
RUN THE NUMBERS: Greenland has 604,800 cubic miles of ice. If 12 cubic miles of ice melt every year it will be 50,400 years before all the ice is gone. This translates to about 2,400 generations. Plenty of time to relocate your family from the shore line.
With 150,826,300 square miles (approx) of connected global water ways the sea level would rise 16.8 feet after 50,400 years. Of course if it were to get warm enough for all that melting, the oceans and seas around Greenland and Iceland would also melt. Since ice volume is 80% more than water volume, world sea levels would decline in proportion to the square miles of frozen ocean. This would result in actual seal level rise to about 11 feet in 50,400 years.
APPLY THE FACTS: The GWA claimed the 12 cubic miles of ice loss each year, but did not specify if this was a net loss or just a summer loss. Since by their nature, they are alarmists, my sense is, as a result of omission, it's a gross loss, which does not take into account that much of the loss is replaced the following winter. In which case the 50,000 years could double over 100,000 years.
If every single cubic foot of ice of the entire northern hemisphere was to melt sea levels would rise about 19 feet, and it would take 50,400 years to do it.
2) Now the question must be asked, "How would we get to the temperatures required to melt all the ice on the top half of the world?".
The GWA's tell us that breathing, cars, cows and industry are creating "greenhouse" gases that are warming the planet.
RUN THE NUMBERS: During the past 100 years the earth's average temperature has risen by 1.3 deg.F. Since ice melts at 33 deg.F, how many years would it take for temperatures to rise enough in the upper levels of the northern hemisphere to melt it all?
Except for areas around sea level in Greenland, the average winter temperature is
-
The alarmist banter about how a 2 degree temperature rise would be catastophic, the reality of physics is ice melts at 33 degrees.
So if all the ice is to melt, temperatures, year round, would have to be +33 deg.
F. So -
Global temperatures would have to rise 83 degrees for all the ice to melt. So at a rise in temperature of 1.3 def every 100 years how long would it take to get warm enough? Here are the numbers.
100 divided by 1.3 = 76.92 x 83 = 6,384 years
APPLY THE FACTS: At the present rate of warming it would take 6,384 years to reach temperatures that would melt all the ice. Once this temperature is reached there will be a lag time for the ice to actually melt. Water freezes at 32 degrees but much of the inner volumes are significantly colder, much colder, due to it's insulation properties. These blocks of ice, therefore would take an even longer period of time to melt.
One cubic foot of ice frozen to 31 degrees, set in ambient temperature (no direct sun or ventilation) of 33 degrees, would take 48 hours to melt.
There are 147 billion cubic feet of ice in a cubic mile.
There are 604,800 cubic miles of ice in Greenland.
The amount of time it would take to melt all this ice would reach into 100's of thousands of years.
((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((
Properties of Carbon Dioxide as an insulator and greenhouse gas
Searching for data on what values certain gases have relating to their ability to block short wave radiation (sun light bounced off the earth's surface) I found the web site shown below. This site is used to train the teachers that are brain washing (teaching) our children about manmade global warming.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
http://www.chemsoc.org/networks/learnnet/jesei/co2green/home.htm
You can read the following to see what they are up to and how they leave out much of the important information such as just what levels or percentages of greenhouse gases are actually present and what levels would be required to have an effect.
Teaching points
Since the Industrial Revolution various industrial processes, including the combustion
of fossil fuels, have led to a build-
Much of the Sun’s radiation arrives as the Earth’s surface as light radiation. There
much of it is absorbed and re-
Activity and preparation
Prepare plastic pop bottles by removing the labels and drilling holes in the tops big enough to allow the temperature probes or thermometers to pass through
Set up clamp stands and heat lamps as shown in Figure 1.
Fill one of the bottles with carbon dioxide, screw the top on (with temperature probe / thermometer in place) and plug any gaps with Plasticine™.
Prepare the other bottle full of air by screwing on the top (with temperature probe / thermometer in place) and plug any gaps with Plasticine™.
Monitor the temperatures of both bottles until they are approximately the same. At this point switch on the heat lamps and start the recording.
After 20 minutes switch the heat lamps off but continue recording the temperatures for a further 20 minutes
Plot a graph of temperature against time for each bottle and compare the two results.
Typical results
Even over a small time period such as 20 minutes we are still able to get a difference of 4°C in temperature between the two samples, the carbon dioxide warming more and faster than the air, see Figure 2. Students may not be impressed with such a small temperature difference in the laboratory. However it should be stressed that scientists are in general agreement that an average increase of just 2°C across the planet could have catastrophic effects on crop production and cause sea levels to increase significantly resulting in major flooding.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Of course this little lab project (above) does not effectively simulate the complicated conditions found in our atmosphere and the true reflective and heat retention properties of Co2 are not as simple as shown. But if it is a sufficient tool for the global warming people, it's good enough to evaluate.
LETS RUN THE NUMBERS
The above experiment shows that carbon dioxide at 100% of the test module holds (maintains temperature) of 4 deg. C above that of pure oxygen. So if the percentage of co2 is reduced to say, 50 percent, then the heat retention properties would be cut in half. If this experiment had been run with carbon dioxide at 50% and oxygen at 50%, it is only logical that the retention property would also be cut in half. Hence this experiment indicates that at 50/50 the temperature difference would be 2 degrees C.
So now, to get the true global warming effect of co2 in the atmosphere, we have to run the numbers.
The percentage of Co2 in the atmosphere in the mid 1800's was about .0036%
The percentage of Co2 in the atmosphere as of 2006 was about .0048% (rounded to .005%)
GREENHOUSE VALUES
PERCENT OF Co2 TEMPERATURE HELD
100% -
50% -
25% -
12.5 % -
6.25% -
3.125% -
1.2625% -
.6312% -
.3156% -
.1578% -
.0789% -
APPLY THE FACTS
1. From 1850 to 2006 (156 years) carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere have risen about .0014%
2. For Co2 to have a 1 degree warming influence on the globe, the percentage will have to be 25%.
25% divided by .0014% = 17,857 (.0014 degrees raises, 17,857 times is needed to reach 25%)
Each 150 years = 1 (.0014 % increase) 17,857 increases x 150 years = 2,678,550 years
So at the present rate of Co2 percentage increases in the atmosphere, it would be 2.6 million years before there would be sufficient amounts to effect the temperature 1 degree.
MORE ABOUT Co2:
All known data show that Co2 elevated levels in the atmosphere FOLLOW temperature rises. NOT THE OTHER WAY AROUND. What does this mean? Al Gore and his global warming fear mongers like to display charts showing that the global temperatures rise in relation to the higher Co2 levels in the atmosphere. They decline to let you know what percentages of Co2 are present and only show percentage rise over a century or so and compare it to to temperature rise, then plot it on a chart.
The fact is, these charts prove that elevated Co2 levels (as insignificant as they are) come after global temperature increases. This fact, of course does not fit into the "man made global warming" scenario, so it is ignored.
So how can this be?
Very simple. With temperatures slightly more moderate, growing seasons all accross the globe allow for more growth of vegitation, of every kind.
So, how does more vegitation produce more Co2?
Everyone knows that plants use Co2 during photosynthesis. True, but like almost every living thing on our planet, when not in photosynthesis mode, vegetation uses oxygen and expells Co2.
This is not to say that these elevated levels effect anything, just that they exist, after higher temperatures and not the other way around.
ANOTHER Co2 FACT
Co2's reaction on long and short wave heat (rays) actually reverse depending on temperature. At higher temperatures as found in the lower atmosphere, Co2 does allow long waves (from the sun) to pass through and in fact does block short waves (reflected) from the earth's surface. See above as to what amounts are required for this to have any effect.
But, what the global warming people convieniently omit, is the effect that sub-
So the two properties, in effect could offset each other.
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CARBON DIOXIDE ON MARS
The following information and data concerning the comparisons between Co2 and the atmosphere is another example of how the claims of the man made global warming people just can not stand up when the numbers are compared and calculated.
The data below show that the average temperature on Mars is -
So if Co2 is the dangerous green house gas, the global warming people say, why is Mars so cold? At 95%, Co2 and at a volume greater than found here on earth, shouldn't Mars' atmosphere be trapping the sun's heat to such an extent that the planet would be as warm as the Earth's, instead of hovering near absolute zero?
The only answer, of course, is that Co2 is not the dangerous greenhouse gas it has been made out to be. The polarizing properties referenced above, cancel each other and effect global temperature in such small amounts it can't be measured. Clearly, 95% Co2 on Mars, has no ability to warm that frozen orb.
*Information gatherd from: http://www.nineplanets.org/mars.html
* Mars has a very thin atmosphere composed mostly of the tiny amount of remaining carbon dioxide (95.3%) plus nitrogen (2.7%), argon (1.6%) and traces of oxygen (0.15%) and water (0.03%). The average pressure on the surface of Mars is only about 7 millibars <help.html> (less than 1% of Earth's), but it varies greatly with altitude from almost 9 millibars in the deepest basins to about 1 millibar at the top of Olympus Mons. But it is thick enough to support very strong winds and vast dust storms <http://antwrp.gsfc.nasa.gov/apod/ap990809.html> that on occasion engulf the entire planet for months. Mars' thin atmosphere produces a greenhouse effect <help.html> but it is only enough to raise the surface temperature by 5 degrees (K); much less than what we see on Venus <venus.html> and Earth <earth.html>.
The above excerpt was taken from a site that appears to be one that concurs with the beliefs that Co2 is a significant "greenhouse" gas. The statement "Mars' thin atmosphere produces a greenhouse effect <help.html> but it is only enough to raise the surface temperature by 5 degrees (K)" is not backed up with data, at least on this web site. How they have determined that Mars would be 5 degrees colder without Co2 is not explained. Atypical for alarmists.
*Information gatherd from: http://www.usatoday.com/weather/resources/askjack/wfaqpres.htm
*This is a metric measurement of atmospheric pressure, which is in turn a measure
of the weight of the atmosphere at a particular location. At sea level, standard
air pressure is 1013.2 millibars, so a reading of 1045 millibars would indicate relatively
high atmosphere pressure. Other units commonly used to measure atmospheric pressure
include inches of mercury and hectopascals. 1045 millibars equals about 30.86 inches
of mercury.
TEMPERATURE SCALES AND CONVERSIONS
The Laws of Thermodynamics predict you can never reach 0 Kelvin (Absolute Zero).
0 Kelvin = -
273.15 Kelvin = 0 degrees Celsius
5 degrees Kelvin = -
Temperature conversions between the three temperature scales:
kelvin / degree Celsius conversions (exact):
- kelvin = degree Celsius + 273.15
- degree Celsius = kelvin -
273.15
degree Fahrenheit / degree Celsius conversions (exact):
- degree F = degree C x 1.8 + 32.
- degree C = (degree F -
32.) / 1.8
The lowest possible temperature is when these random atomic and molecular motions
are at the minimum possible energy. This temperature is absolute zero. It is zero
in the Kelvin temperature scale. Absolute zero is -
The average global temperature for 2004 of 14.60 degrees Celsius (58.28 degrees Fahrenheit)
* EARTH
Temperature .................. 58.28 (F)
Atmosphere Density....... 1013.2 Millabars
Carbon Dioxide............... .005%
Earth has .0000049 Co2 parts per millabar as a relationship
_____________________________________________
* MARS
Temperature................ -
Atmoshpere Density..... 7 Millabars
Carbon Dioxide............ 95%
Mars has 13.571 Co2 parts per millabar as a relationship
* Temperatures and Densities are global average.
____________________________________________________
7 Millabars divided by 1013.2 Millabars = .0069%
Mars atmoshpere is .0069% of the Earth's
95% Co2 divided by .005% Co2 = 19,000
Mars atmosphere has Co2 at 19,000 times the amount of Earth's Co2 by percentage.
Earth has atmosphere pressure 144.74 times the pressure on Mars.
-
LOGICAL CONCLUSION ON GLOBAL WARMING
No one can deny that the globe is warming. It is. There is however zero proof that man is causing any of it. Since we do put gases in the air, surely some temperature rise is caused by us. But the amount of our input on this is so very insignificant that it can't be measured or proved. It's effect could closely compare with a drop of water in the Pacific Ocean. And to change our lifestyles and to allow governments to tax us and slow our economy, is so far beyond common sense, it boggles one's mind that this ruse has gone this far.
Of course no one wants to put pollutants into our air. All should be done to prevent that. It is being done and it should continue to be done. And it will be done.
The atmosphere and all it's parts and properties are required to keep our planet warm. The combination of moisture, oxygen, Co2 and all the other gases are responsible and required.
The some of the dominant entities are ozone, oxygen and humidity (clouds). The other gases are of such small significance as to not really matter. (See above)
Ozone, created by the sun (UV rays) when reacting with oxygen, is the most important
green house gas on the planet. Without it, the earth would quickly cool and the
protection from x-
The activity of the sun, which has many cycles within cycles (7 year, 100 year and thousand year) is the only logical reason for global temperature changes. The evidence is overwhelming and cannot be denied. The more sun flares there are, the more ozone is created the warmer the planet becomes. There are several other reations to the sun and to cosmic particles that are proven to effect global temperatures. Simply stated, man has nothing to do with global temperature change, because man cannot control the sun, the stars, cosmic dust or the clouds.
Another sun fact that is routinely ignored, is a very important one. The sun gets bigger (expands) every day. It also gets hotter every day. Granted, the increases are very, very small. The sun will, however, one day expand to a point where the earth will be burned to a cinder. Many hundreds of thousands of years before that, all the water on the planet will have evaporated into space.
The fact is that every billion years the sun expands in size and increases in temperature by about 10%. So we earthlings have a long time to get ready for a trip to other worlds. But one thing is certain, there will be nothing man, Al Gore included, will be able to do to stop that global warming. No more than we have any control over the natural temperatures changes taking place on our planet today.
Man is smart and adaptable. God and nature work very slowly and there is no doubt we will have plenty of time to adjust and survive.
So in final analysis, man is powerless to effect the warming of the planet. As powerless as he would be if the planet began to cool.
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The following was taken from http://en.rian.ru/analysis/20080103/94768732.html
This scientist has made much of the same conclusions that my report has indicated. While I do not predict "cooling" anytime soon, it certainly will follow a reduction in the sun's activity.
MOSCOW. (Oleg Sorokhtin for RIA Novosti) -
Earth is now at the peak of one of its passing warm spells. It started in the 17th century when there was no industrial influence on the climate to speak of and no such thing as the hothouse effect. The current warming is evidently a natural process and utterly independent of hothouse gases.
The real reasons for climate changes are uneven solar radiation, terrestrial precession
(that is, axis gyration), instability of oceanic currents, regular salinity fluctuations
of the Arctic Ocean surface waters, etc. There is another, principal reason-
Astrophysics knows two solar activity cycles, of 11 and 200 years. Both are caused
by changes in the radius and area of the irradiating solar surface. The latest data,
obtained by Habibullah Abdusamatov, head of the Pulkovo Observatory space research
laboratory, say that Earth has passed the peak of its warmer period, and a fairly
cold spell will set in quite soon, by 2012. Real cold will come when solar activity
reaches its minimum, by 2041, and will last for 50-
This is my point, which environmentalists hotly dispute as they cling to the hothouse theory. As we know, hothouse gases, in particular, nitrogen peroxide, warm up the atmosphere by keeping heat close to the ground. Advanced in the late 19th century by Svante A. Arrhenius, a Swedish physical chemist and Nobel Prize winner, this theory is taken for granted to this day and has not undergone any serious check.
It determines decisions and instruments of major international organizations-
Hothouse gases may not be to blame for global warming. At any rate, there is no scientific
evidence to their guilt. The classic hothouse effect scenario is too simple to be
true. As things really are, much more sophisticated processes are on in the atmosphere,
especially in its dense layer. For instance, heat is not so much radiated in space
as carried by air currents-
The temperature of the troposphere, the lowest and densest portion of the atmosphere,
does not depend on the concentration of greenhouse gas emissions-
Temperature fluctuations always run somewhat ahead of carbon dioxide concentration
changes. This means that warming is primary. The ocean is the greatest carbon dioxide
depository, with concentrations 60-
Likewise, warm ocean water exudes greater amounts of carbonic acid, which evaporates
to add to industrial pollution-
Carbon dioxide cannot be bad for the climate. On the contrary, it is food for plants,
and so is beneficial to life on Earth. Bearing out this point was the Green Revolution-
Carbon dioxide has quite a different pernicious influence-
Carbon dioxide is not to blame for global climate change. Solar activity is many times more powerful than the energy produced by the whole of humankind. Man’s influence on nature is a drop in the ocean.
Earth is unlikely to ever face a temperature disaster. Of all the planets in the solar system, only Earth has an atmosphere beneficial to life. There are many factors that account for development of life on Earth: Sun is a calm star, Earth is located an optimum distance from it, it has the Moon as a massive satellite, and many others. Earth owes its friendly climate also to dynamic feedback between biotic and atmospheric evolution.
The principal among those diverse links is Earth’s reflective power, which regulates its temperature. A warm period, as the present, increases oceanic evaporation to produce a great amount of clouds, which filter solar radiation and so bring heat down. Things take the contrary turn in a cold period.
What can’t be cured must be endured. It is wise to accept the natural course of things.
We have no reason to panic about allegations that ice in the Arctic Ocean is thawing
rapidly and will soon vanish altogether. As it really is, scientists say the Arctic
and Antarctic ice shields are growing. Physical and mathematical calculations predict
a new Ice Age. It will come in 100,000 years, at the earliest, and will be much worse
than the previous. Europe will be ice-
Meanwhile, Europeans can rest assured. The Gulf Stream will change its course only
if some evil magic robs it of power to reach the north-
Dr. Oleg Sorokhtin, Merited Scientist of Russia and fellow of the Russian Academy of Natural Sciences, is staff researcher of the Oceanology Institute.
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The Sun Also Sets
By INVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY | Posted Thursday, February 07, 2008 4:20 PM PT
Climate Change: Not every scientist is part of Al Gore's mythical "consensus." Scientists worried about a new ice age seek funding to better observe something bigger than your SUV — the sun.
Related Topics: Global Warming
Back in 1991, before Al Gore first shouted that the Earth was in the balance, the Danish Meteorological Institute released a study using data that went back centuries that showed that global temperatures closely tracked solar cycles.
To many, those data were convincing. Now, Canadian scientists are seeking additional funding for more and better "eyes" with which to observe our sun, which has a bigger impact on Earth's climate than all the tailpipes and smokestacks on our planet combined.
And they're worried about global cooling, not warming.
Kenneth Tapping, a solar researcher and project director for Canada's National Research Council, is among those looking at the sun for evidence of an increase in sunspot activity.
Solar activity fluctuates in an 11-
Such an event occurred in the 17th century. The observation of sunspots showed extraordinarily
low levels of magnetism on the sun, with little or no 11-
This solar hibernation corresponded with a period of bitter cold that began around 1650 and lasted, with intermittent spikes of warming, until 1715. Frigid winters and cold summers during that period led to massive crop failures, famine and death in Northern Europe.
Tapping reports no change in the sun's magnetic field so far this cycle and warns that if the sun remains quiet for another year or two, it may indicate a repeat of that period of drastic cooling of the Earth, bringing massive snowfall and severe weather to the Northern Hemisphere.
Tapping oversees the operation of a 60-
In Canada, where radio-
As we have noted many times, perhaps the biggest impact on the Earth's climate over time has been the sun.
For instance, researchers at the Max Planck Institute for Solar Research in Germany report the sun has been burning more brightly over the last 60 years, accounting for the 1 degree Celsius increase in Earth's temperature over the last 100 years.
R. Timothy Patterson, professor of geology and director of the Ottawa-
Rather, he says, "I and the first-
Patterson, sharing Tapping's concern, says: "Solar scientists predict that, by 2020, the sun will be starting into its weakest Schwabe cycle of the past two centuries, likely leading to unusually cool conditions on Earth."
"Solar activity has overpowered any effect that CO2 has had before, and it most likely
will again," Patterson says. "If we were to have even a medium-
In 2005, Russian astronomer Khabibullo Abdusamatov made some waves — and not a few enemies in the global warming "community" — by predicting that the sun would reach a peak of activity about three years from now, to be accompanied by "dramatic changes" in temperatures.
A Hoover Institution Study a few years back examined historical data and came to a similar conclusion.
"The effects of solar activity and volcanoes are impossible to miss. Temperatures fluctuated exactly as expected, and the pattern was so clear that, statistically, the odds of the correlation existing by chance were one in 100," according to Hoover fellow Bruce Berkowitz.
The study says that "try as we might, we simply could not find any relationship between industrial activity, energy consumption and changes in global temperatures."
The study concludes that if you shut down all the world's power plants and factories, "there would not be much effect on temperatures."
But if the sun shuts down, we've got a problem. It is the sun, not the Earth, that's hanging in the balance.
